“Young people have been the hardest hit by Fianna Fáil’s mismanagement of the economy. Fine Gael is offering them an alternative“ says Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny TD in 2009. Flickr/ EPP. Some rights reserved. In
2008, Ireland became the first Eurozone member to enter recession. Between 2007
and 2010 the economy contracted with a peak-to-trough decline of 12.4% of GDP,
and tax receipts fell by 33%. The crisis was precipitated by the bursting of a
property bubble, the collapse of the construction industry in which 1 in 9
people were employed, and a liquidity crisis in the country’s banks.
In the face of crisis
In
what would become the most expensive bank rescue since the Great Depression, in
autumn 2008 the state moved to guarantee the liabilities of the six biggest
financial institutions. The guarantee cost the taxpayer €64 billion, or 37.3%
of GDP, the highest proportion of any EU country, even ahead of Greece which
spent 24.8% of GDP on its banks.
The
public finances never fully recovered, and financial markets failed to regain confidence
in the Irish government’s ability to service its debts. The country was driven to
the brink of bankruptcy, and in November 2010, it became the second Eurozone
member after Greece to seek a bailout from the Troika, agreeing to the terms of
a four-year €67.5 billion rescue package.
The
then finance minister, Brian Lenihan Jnr, having been named the worst finance
minister in Europe for 2009 and 2010 by the Financial Times, died of a short illness the following
June. Three years later in December 2013 Ireland became the first country to
successfully exit its bailout programme.
The Irish political
landscape 2011-2016
In the last general election in February 2011 the incumbent Fianna Fáil
(centre-right) and Green party coalition was routed. Fianna Fáil, long regarded
as the natural party of government, having held office for more than 60 of the
previous 90 years, was swept from power, losing 51 of its 71 seats in the 166-seat
parliament. Their smaller coalition partners the Greens lost all of their six
seats. The Fine Gael (centre-right) and Labour (centre-left) grand
coalition government was elected with a
combined haul of 113, the biggest mandate in history.
While
in several crisis-stricken countries in Europe, the pressures of administering
austerity brought about the collapse of governments, the Irish coalition ran its
full five-year term relatively unscathed, with Fine Gael losing ten deputies through
defections, and Labour losing four. While Fine Gael’s vote share is expected to
fall, it will almost certainly emerge as the biggest party after the election and
is expected to lead the next government. Should Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Enda
Kenny succeed in doing so, he will become the first Fine Gael leader to achieve
successive election victories. Labour meanwhile are expected to retain fewer
than a quarter of the 37 seats they won in 2011, mirroring the fate of many
smaller coalition parties across Europe, such as the Liberal Democrats in the
UK and the Free Democrats in Germany.
With
a week left to the election, the Irish
Times poll
of polls estimates support for Fine Gael at 28.5%, Labour at 7.5%, Fianna
Fáil at 19%, Sinn Féin (centre-left) 19.5% and Independent and smaller parties at
23.5%. These numbers indeed anticipate a Fine
Gael victory, but when combined with the predicted reductions for Labour, the
coalition will likely fall short of a majority, leaving open the question of
who Fine Gael will govern with.
Meanwhile,
the rise in support for ‘Independents and others’ and for Sinn Féin are
arguably the two most notable developments in this election. Meanwhile, the rise in support for ‘Independents and
others’ and for Sinn Féin are arguably the two most notable developments in
this election. Significantly, given Ireland’s proportional voting system
and its multi-seat constituencies, with no threshold for entering parliament, independents
and smaller parties have long been a feature of national politics. However, polls
suggest that the number of ‘independents and others’ may rise from 14 elected
in 2011, to as many as 35 in Friday’s poll, aided in part by the emergence of
the Social Democrats (centre-left) as a breakaway from Labour, and Renua
(conservative), as a breakaway from Fine Gael. Nonetheless, smaller parties and
independents will also be too few in number to govern alone, although they may
be called upon to bring a potential coalition over the line.
Similarly,
support for Sinn Féin has surged from 9.9% in 2011 to as high as 19.5% in recent
opinion polls, but support for the party has dipped to around 15% as polling
approaches. While
elsewhere in Europe the crisis years have seen the emergence of radical,
populist, anti-establishment, and Euro-sceptic parties, no such group has
emerged in Ireland.
Sinn
Féin is the oldest party in the country having been founded in 1905, and has
held seats in Parliament continuously since 1997, and has governed in the
Northern Ireland power-sharing Executive at different times since 1998. Sinn
Féin is unlike the newer challenger parties emerging elsewhere in Europe such
as Syriza in Greece or Podemos in Spain, given its heritage and longevity. It is
clear furthermore that while Sinn Féin’s star has been rising over the crisis
years, it is unlikely that the party will participate in government, this time
at least, as each of the mainstream parties have claimed that they will not
govern with the party, given its roots in the armed struggle against British
rule in Northern Ireland.
Unthinkable conclusions
While Ireland is
used to coalition governments, it is distinctly possible that no combination of
parties will have the numbers to govern after Friday’s poll, as happened
following the general elections in Spain in December 2015, and new elections
may be called.
Fine Gael has
ruled out a coalition with Fianna Fáil, Fianna Fáil has ruled out Sinn Féin,
and Sinn Féin has ruled itself out of any coalition where it is not the biggest
party. However once the chips are down, it is impossible to tell what the
parties may be willing to do in order to gain power.
Essentially
the Fine Gael/Labour government is seeking to be re-elected on its record of
competence, and from having charted a course through the difficult crisis
years. While the coalition has stayed
the course for its full term, the implementation of five years of austerity has
made the government deeply unpopular and unlikely to be re-elected, on its own
at least.
Many
commentators are beginning to speculate seriously about the prospect of what
until even very recently was regarded as unthinkable in Irlsh politics, namely the
formation of a Fine-Gael/Fianna Fáil coalition.
These
parties, the heirs of two sides of a bitter Civil War fought almost a century
ago, have each repeatedly and sometimes vociferously ruled this out. However,
this year, which marks the centenary of the 1916 Easter Rising, the seminal event
in Irish social and political history that began the process that would lead to
Irish independence, may provide the historical justification for ending one of
the great taboos in Irish (and European) politics. Failing this, Ireland may be
entering a phase of unprecedented political instability following the election
next week.
Given these
trends, it is clear that Ireland is experiencing a realignment of its political
system, with the erstwhile dominance of the two big ‘Civil War parties’ of
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael as well as the traditional ‘third party’ of Labour
being joined by a rapidly growing Sinn Féin, and the rise of six or seven
smaller parties and independents which may prove to be systemically
significant.