Poland is threatening to block the adoption of conclusions on the European Commission’s low-carbon roadmap at tomorrow’s (9 March) meeting of environment ministers, despite the removal of references to a more ambitious target for reducing emissions by 2020.

Poland first blocked conclusions on the roadmap, which plots out a course for the reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions until 2050, in June last year. It said then that it could not support a reference to a possible move to reducing emissions by 25% by 2020, instead of the existing 20% commitment. Poland said this looked too much like a target. Conclusions on the roadmap require unanimity.

In its latest draft, Denmark, which holds the presidency of the EU’s Council of Ministers, has, at Poland’s insistence, removed all references to a potential 25% target for 2020, except for a statement that increased energy efficiency could lead the EU to outperform its 2020 target. It also changes the “targets” set out by the Commission – 40% in 2030, 60% in 2040 and 80% in 2050 – into “milestones”.

But now Poland has said that it also objects to these longer-term targets, even if they are called milestones. “The period the roadmap covers is too long to make such plans,” said a Polish spokesperson. “It uses a different modelling instrument from what we are using…94% of our electricity energy is from coal: this is why we can only use data that is reliable.”

Countries that want the EU to move beyond its 20% commitment, such as Germany and the UK, are becoming increasingly impatient and are indicating that they will not compromise any further, according to a Council source.

The EU has committed itself during UN climate negotiations to reduce its emissions by 20% by 2020, but it has offered to move to 30% if other countries follow suit. Several member states, including the UK, have said that they want the EU to move to this target unilaterally, but Poland is staunchly opposed.

While it is possible for the Commission to adopt its roadmap without approval from the Council, because it does not constitute binding legislation, this would be a highly unusual move.

Parliament backing

Next week, the European Parliament is expected to back the Commission’s roadmap and maintain the references to a move to 25%. Chris Davies, a British Liberal MEP who is drafting the Parliament’s response, expressed frustration that Poland was now opposing any long-term targets. “The Poles are just leaving investors in a position of complete uncertainty,” he said. “Those planning on making investments in power generation over the next 30 years have to be given a clear indication of Europe’s direction. Does anyone really believe that we are going to be tolerating unabated coal-fired power generation in 30 years’ time?”

In a leaked four-page letter sent to environment ministers this week, Marcin Karolec, Poland’s environment minister, said that although his country agreed to the 2020 target in 2008, it could not accept targets beyond. “Differences still acceptable for targets agreed in 2008 could grow unbearable for more stringent targets going beyond 2020,” he wrote.

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